![]() To avoid repetition, the Russia-Ukraine war must be recognized as a European security breakdown. ![]() Low-level warfare continued unabated despite a limited OSCE presence on the ground. Twice Moscow and Kyiv were brought to the negotiating table in Minsk with Germany and France acting as mediators twice the Minsk agreements proved ineffective and non-complied with. The 2014 crisis, which led to Russia's annexation of Crimea and to the Russia-supported violent separatism in the Donbas, was primarily dealt with by the West as a bilateral Russia-Ukraine dispute. Since cessation of hostilities will simply mean “live to fight another day,” it will be up to the international community to prevent a new Russia-Ukraine war from breaking out again. The frozen-conflict scenario will leave full potential for resumption of war. Post-War Challenges: Securing Ukraine and Dealing With Russia The intermediate period will be fraught with risk. Therefore, peace and stability are an aspiration for the long term, when circumstances permit, and most likely a post-Putin scenario. Ukraine's defensive war, fought by Ukrainians and supported by Western allies, does not aim at regime change in Russia. Succession in Moscow must come from within, originated either by domestic political dynamics or by time and human mortality. ![]() With change of mind in the Kremlin highly implausible, a peace treaty will have to wait until a post-Putin regime. Meanwhile, if the annexations are unnegotiable, Ukraine would have zero incentive to negotiate anything at all. Anything short of that would strike Putin as jeopardizing his regime, in my view. Putin would not backtrack on the annexations he has legally enshrined -only “pause” from implementing them on the part of Ukrainian territory not under Russia’s control at cease-fire time. That would not imply readiness to negotiate a settlement. This frozen conflict scenario could potentially play out in the near-to-medium term when, for a combination of military and political reasons, both sides reach the exhaustion threshold and are forced to temporarily give up their respective goals. Absent a peace treaty, both countries will maintain claims on territory under the other side’s control-without international recognition in Russia’s case.Russia would remain an oversized regional great power and a nuclear superpower with unfulfilled nationalistic/imperial ambitions.Ukraine would remain vulnerable to Russia’s aggression.It would bring a pause in the fighting but not peace between Ukraine and Russia.In this case it would have four major consequences: This suggests that post-war planning should begin by focusing on a frozen-conflict scenario preceding any possible peace settlement.Ī frozen state of the current war would mean that fighting ends with a Korea-like ceasefire, or armistice at best, but without a peace treaty. What is clear is that Ukraine and Russia appear locked in a conflict that neither is likely to win decisively and that a definitive peace settlement is hardly conceivable with Vladimir Putin in power. As the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war is still uncertain, any prediction of how it will end is at best an extrapolation from present trends and experts’ estimates-which have been repeatedly off the mark in the last 12 months. At the same time, Ukraine policy cannot be disconnected from Russia policy, with the latter aimed at lowering the risk of military confrontation and at resuming talks on arms control and limitations. First and foremost, they will have to spell out clear terms and mechanisms for military support to Kyiv in case of further Russian aggression. But international guarantees to that effect will be influenced by the wider state of European security. Securing Ukraine will be the most pressing task. The most realistic option, in my view, would be for the West to provide Ukraine with a comprehensive “security safety blanket,” including bespoke, fool-proof international security guarantees-specifically, by an ad hoc group of countries-while pragmatically engaging Russia in negotiations on arms control and limitations, inclusive of conventional weapons and forces, and on establishing a safety net of confidence-building-measures across the Euro-Atlantic space. Since both a Ukraine-Russia peace treaty and a comprehensive European security framework will only become possible in the long term, even after cessation of active hostilities, it will be necessary to fill the security vacuum in the short-to-medium term. But at some point, the fighting will come to a halt, and it is not too early to think about what should come next. One year on, no end to the war in Ukraine is in sight. ![]()
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